A Second Strait, a Second Shock: What Bab el-Mandeb Closure Would Do to Fertilizer Exports
A full closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would deliver a devastating second shock to global fertilizer trade. This critical chokepoint, already under pressure, shares key waters with Hormuz routes. A complete shutdown would cut global oil supply by an additional 7% on top of the roughly 10% already impacted by Hormuz disruptions.
A Second Strait, a Second Shock: What Bab el-Mandeb Closure Would Do to Fertilizer Exports
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and serves as a vital passage for shipments heading to and from the Suez Canal. Many fertilizer cargoes from the Gulf and other regions transit this route.
Why Bab el-Mandeb Is Critical
Major artery for Gulf fertilizer exports to Europe, Africa, and Asia
Key route for Red Sea and Suez Canal traffic
Shared vulnerability with Hormuz-bound vessels
Limited viable alternative routes without massive detours
Potential Impact of a Full Closure
Fertilizer Flow Disruption: Significant delays or complete halts for cargoes heading to key import markets
Compounded Hormuz Effect: A dual-strait crisis would create unprecedented pressure on global supply chains
Freight Rate Explosion: Dramatic increases in shipping costs and insurance premiums
Rerouting Chaos: Vessels forced to take the long route around Africa, adding weeks to transit times
Price Surge: Accelerated upward pressure on urea, phosphate, and ammonia prices worldwide
Most Affected Markets
Europe: Already struggling with high energy costs and reduced domestic production
India & South Asia: Heavily reliant on timely imports for rice and other crops
East Africa: Vulnerable to supply shortages and food security risks
Brazil: Could face higher costs for phosphate and potash imports
Strategic Implications
For Importers:
Urgent need to secure non-Red Sea/Gulf supply sources
Build strategic inventories immediately
Prepare for significantly higher delivered costs
For Producers:
Potential production adjustments based on export feasibility
Exploration of overland or alternative maritime routes
For Global Agriculture:
Risk of higher input costs translating into reduced fertilizer application
Potential pressure on global food production and prices
Outlook
A simultaneous disruption of both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb would represent one of the most severe challenges to global fertilizer trade in modern history. Even the credible threat of a Bab el-Mandeb closure is enough to keep markets on edge and prices elevated.
The fertilizer industry and agricultural stakeholders must now plan for worst-case scenarios involving multiple critical maritime chokepoints, accelerating the push for greater supply chain diversification and resilience.
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